SembCorp Industries - Valuation attractive, offshore catalyst

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

SCI’s share of profits from Sembcorp Marine (SMM) rose S$18m on order book recognition. This more than offset a S$10m fall in utilities net profits. Utilities was broadly in line with expectations: the unit’s Singapore operations recorded an unexpected S$4.6m gain on sale of strategic fuel and S$5.7m deferred tax writeback, but these gains were offset by provisions which we estimate at about S$5m, made for an unscheduled plant maintenance in May.

We recently raised SMM order book assumptions by 17-80% as we expect contract awards to pick up in the coming months and we think the positive momentum could be sustained if global macro data continues to surprise positively. This could be a powerful share price driver for SMM, and in turn, SCI. Contracts: SMM has just announced a S$230m contract for an offshore gas platform and we believe a semisub completion job worth about US$250m is imminent.

Implied valuation of 6.2x 2010E EV/EBITDA on the core utilities business looks attractive, given the division’s relatively stable earnings outlook. An SMM share price rally is meaningful to SCI as SMM accounts for 46% of SCI’s valuation. Valuation: Sum of parts based price target raised to S$4.04 from S$3.25 The increase is due to higher market values of Sembcorp Marine and Gallant Venture. SCI’s utilities business is valued on DCF.


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