CSE Global - a Singapore-listed industrial systems integrator for the oil & gas

Thursday, July 2, 2009

CSE Global is leverage play on production cycle which has more visibility and stability. Our discussion with management suggest tenders and order enquiries continue to be healthy despite oil price volatility. CSE Global’s proven execution ability, order book of S$343mn, and ability to maintain margins during 4Q08/1Q09 suggests downside to earnings is limited.

We maintain Buy, but trim earnings by 21-31% due to lower than expected revenue growth since our last update. We raise target price to S$0.75 from S$0.55, based on 8.5x FY10E P/E (raised from 5.5x FY09E PE) as well as roll over to FY10E earnings multiple. Our 8.5x P/E is based on 17% discount to industry PE of ~10x, justified by CSE’s slower EPS growth vs. peers and lower share trading liquidity.

Our target price of S$0.75 (8.5x FY10E P/E) is based on a 17% discount to the industry's P/E of ~10x given CSE's slower EPS growth vs. peers and lower share trading liquidity. We believe the market has yet to fully appreciate CSE's strong business model. CSE does not have direct comparables in Singapore or in the region, and the majority of the oil/gas-related firms now trade at far higher multiples despite lower margins. We use P/E because the share price is closely correlated with earnings growth.


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