Ezra - The subsea rises

Friday, August 7, 2009

Ezra's recent new growth strategy announcement on the subsea market marks a strategic and transformational move to focus on one of the fastest growing segments of the O&M sector, and we expect earnings to benefit. At 7.1x FY2010E PER, with an EPS CAGR of 41%, and trading towards the lower end of its historical range, we believe valuations are attractive. Initiate with a Buy.

Our FY2011E earnings estimates are around 50% above the market’s and we expect Street forecasts to rise over the coming year as Ezra’s plans begin to materialize. The group has a good execution track record over the years and we believe there is plenty of room for a positive re-rating as their earnings accelerate, moving them up towards the O&M mainstream names.

Global subsea spending in the next five years should rise >70% over the previous five years. Subsea spending should total about US$160bn from 2009 to 2013, and 3,222 subsea trees are due to be installed during this period. With its upcoming high specification vessels, enhanced know-how and expertise, and good execution track record, Ezra should be in a strong position to benefit.

We have set Ezra’s target price at S$2.50, which is derived by averaging the estimated values of the PEG and Gordon Growth model methods. Risks include vessel delivery delays, execution, any unexpected offshore mishaps, a sustained plunge in oil prices, and any unexpected departures of key executives.


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