ASL Marine - No new shipbuilding orders since October

ASL Marine posted a robust set of FY09 results – excluding a doubtful debt provision and impairment loss totalling S$7.6m, the numbers were bang in line. FY09 net earnings were S$71.0m, up 17.9% over FY08. Without disposal gains, however, earnings were flat at around S$41.0m. ASL proposed a final dividend of 3cts per share, unchanged from FY08.

Revenue for the group grew by 8.7% to S$435.4m, boosted mainly by its shipbuilding segment, which grew 10.5%. Shiprepair remained steady, while shipchartering grew by 9.4%. Overall margins have also been sustained, which is especially pertinent for shiprepair, which is facing difficult operating conditions in the current weak market environment.

ASL has managed to sustain its shiprepair revenues especially in the final quarter. However, while the number of ships repaired has increased, the average contract size has declined. Going forward, management says it needs to work harder in order to secure customers, but we believe that erosion in revenues and margins is inevitable.

ASL has also not secured any new shipbuilding orders since October 2008, but is currently working on its existing orderbook of S$523m. Management’s reading of the market is that it does not expect to receive new orders until the credit situation improves. Under these conditions, we are conservatively not expecting any new shipbuilding orders and therefore factoring in a 60% decline in the segment’s revenue from FY12.

Ship chartering revenues will be propped up by the addition of 12 vessels, and better rates on timecharters, but these can be volatile. We are leaving our FY10 core net profit forecast unchanged at S$45m, for a YoY pick-up of 10%. ASL is still trading at compelling valuations of 6.8x FY10 earnings. We maintain our BUY recommendation, to our target price of $1.62, in line with peer average of 10x PER.

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