ASL Marine - Strong enquiry of offshore orders

Friday, September 11, 2009

We recently hosted a postresults briefing for ASL. Investors’ concerns centred on declining shipbuilding orderbook, competition arising from other repair yards and whether shipchartering activities could be sustainable. Management reassured that it is receiving a healthy level of newbuild and repair enquiries, driven by increased offshore activities. While we do not anticipate sudden pick-up in newbuild orders for this year, we believe this has been priced in. With the expansion of Batam yard to be fully completed by Mar 10, we believe ASL will be one of the key beneficiaries for repair work of an enlarged fleet globally. Ascribing P/E of 6x to FY11 EPS, we derive our target price of S$1.41. Maintain BUY.

Management is receiving healthy enquiries for newbuilding of high capacity tugs and offshore construction vessels. We understand that these offshore vessels are in demand, given the increased offshore drilling activities in Australia (Western Australia’s Gorgon Gas project) and Indonesia (Timor Sea, Sumatra). Hence, we believe this will be positive for ASL. However, management acknowledges that due to fewer orders and tighter competition, the margins of new orders may be compromised, going forward.

Batam’s yard capacity to increase by 70% in deadweight tonnage in Mar 10. ASL’s Batam yard is currently adding two drydocks and a graving dock as well as lengthening its finger pier. When the upgrading work is completed in Mar 10, ASL’s yard capacity would increase by 70% dwt and be able to accommodate the repair and conversion works of larger vessels. Management is optimistic on the long-term outlook, underpinned by an increasing global fleet and regulatory requirements.

Shipchartering. ASL has a current fleet of 189 vessels with an average age of six years. ASL is currently building 11 vessels internally and a vessel externally to add to its chartering fleet, which will increase to a fleet of 201 vessels by FY10.


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